Large Multinationals for Distribution Top phase

Hi Leaf,
 
Thanks for all posts as usual. Don’t know if you remember but back a couple three weeks ago you mentioned that Large Cap Multinationals that dominate the S&P 500 would lag until the distribution top starts to form at the Wave 3 high.  All makes sense to me.  Anyway, I have been scanning around for individuals names that might fit that bill.  I am trying MRK from your 130 minute expansion scan yesterday (I also tried INTC but took it off watching today’s action).  I am also trying GE but much less sure of this one – not sure what you might think on GE.  I sold AIG into earnings this afternoon which in after hours is looking incredibly misguided (I have SNV which is my only financial and looks very good to me on valuation and a bit off the radar basis).  Try to keep us posted on what else might fit this idea if something emerges.  Meanwhile, I am trying to follow your levels, targets, and stops with UPRO.  Wouldn’t be surprised you might find an IBM entry for me here.  I also have F which might fit this multinational idea but I would not doubt you think this is crazy high price here and too dangerous to hold past when you declare the top is in.
 
 In Meredith Whitney’s somewhat padded new book, Fate of the States, besides her usual fear-mongering to sell the book, there is a positive possibly actionable idea:  the “central corridor” of Texas, Indiana, and North Dakota are the new centers of economic growth.  Mainly because they were not much involved in the housing bubble in 2008 and also, of course, the boom in big farms and gas fracking is also there, too.  I notice in her 13F she owns PNC which is a national regional not really centered in those areas.  North Dakota is the only State with its own bank and a bunch of other small regionals none which look attractive.  SNV is all the southeast.  Whitney thinks we will see formation of “superregional” banks in the corridor.  I  also owned KEY in this area but it looks very extended and I sold my last half this afternoon:  it reached a 1.618x target you taught me to measure and so I threw in the sponge for now.
 
Fantastic call on PDS and hopefully you will find a moment to give a long term sell suggestion when that comes up.  XLE looks like it might just bust out over 84 tomorrow which will create a new ball game in that area perhaps.
 
I expect you will only answer this as/if something compelling emerges which is all good.
 
— 
Douglas Sly
dsly@fastmail.net

 

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Marching Orders to Buck the Trend

“Extended marches” by the market happen occasionally especially  near the end of bull markets. 1995 being one of the clearest recent examples of an extended more or less  uninterrupted march lasting about a year .  It is remarkable how quickly broad market sentiment has turned quite  bearish, or at least that is my take.

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Spinning Tops

 
 
That was a wild ride with TSLA today.  My god!  I had sold my trading shares late yesterday and so wanted to keep my core position and rode that pig up and back down.  Not too impressive!  I did trade some in the last couple of hours but it’s tricky and back to core.  I don’t like watching that sort of thing, gives me a headache.  Looks like LNKD has resumed its uptrend and I was able to add at 17909 today so we will see.  I was a little disappointed at the downgrade by some idiot at Goldman Sachs of AVG this morning but shares seem to be holding anyway.  I will be glad when the 13F’s finally come down the pipe late tonight or early tomorrow so I can rebalance some of my ideas.  Another pretty good new idea is emerging, however.  Still early (VOCS).
 
Hopefully, somebody like Leaf or Stuart will tell me if they go all cash which I expect possibly to happen in a couple three months.   I will need a break by then!  Very quick rotations happening now that I try not to allow to distract too much.
 
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The New Lockout

Minervini in his new book on investing Trade Like A Stock Market Wizard speaks of a phenomenon called The Lockout which occurs early in a bull market just after reversing out of a bear market.  In this period, “the market experiences multiple waves of stocks emerging into new high ground; general pullbacks will be minimal and probably will be contained to 3 to 5 percent from peak to trough.  Many inexperienced investors will be looking to buy a pullback that rarely materializes during the initial stage of a new powerful bull market, which from the onset will appear to be overbought.”

Here at the end of a bull market in May 2013, in our 50th month, we have a very similar phenomenon except it is not so pointedly inexperienced investors who are locked out – indeed, more than a few of these have just quietly gone on adding to their pensions and RRSP’s and done quite handily since these passive investments often meet the indices.  Now many savvy investors and, more particularly active traders feel locked out:  active traders, hedge fund managers, as well as those have just stopped stinging from losses in the market in 2001-2003 and in 2008.

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I arrived in Havana on May 9th, 2 days before the start of the first round. I was picked up at the airport by the organizers.

This was the first time that I did not change time zones for a tournament. A nice change! Havana is a beautiful city. I had a full day before the tournament to walk around and explore. I will post photos after I am done analyzing the games.

The opening ceremony took place the night before the first round. The organizers of this traditional event did a great job and provided the participants with some nice performances. There was also the drawing or lots. The organizers did a fantastic job throughout of the event.

There is nothing the organizers can do about internet though. Internet was provided in the hotel lobby for 8 CUC (approx. $8) per hour. Such is internet access in Cuba.

I came to Cuba for the competition. With a 2560 average rating, there are no easy games. Out of the 10 players in the Premier Group, 9 were GMs. This tournament is a strong round robin that would test me throughout the event.

Round 1

I was paired against Omar Almeida Quintana, rated 2558, in the first round.

[Event “?”]
[Site “?”]
[Date “2011.05.11”]
[Round “?”]
[White “Almeida, O.”]
[Black “Bluvshtein”]
[Result “0-1”]
[ECO “A00”]
[PlyCount “104”]
[EventDate “2011.05.11”]
[SourceDate “2011.05.11”]

1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. Bg5 c5 5. d5 h6 6. Bh4 d6 7. e3 Bxc3+ 8. bxc3
Qe7 9. Nf3 e5 10. Nd2 g5 11. Bg3 Nbd7 12. h4 Rg8 13. hxg5 hxg5 14. Qc2 Kd8 15.
Bd3 Kc7 16. O-O-O b6 17. f3 Bb7 18. Bf5 Rh8 19. Bf2 Rag8 20. g4 Qe8 21. e4 Rxh1
22. Rxh1 Rh8 23. Qd1 Qg8 24. Be3 Rxh1 25. Qxh1 Qg7 26. Kb2 Ba6 27. Kb3 b5 28.
cxb5 Bxb5 29. c4 Ba6 30. Qc1 Nb8 31. Nb1 Nfd7 32. Bxg5 Nb6 33. Na3 Qh8 34. Nb5+
Bxb5 35. cxb5 Qh3 36. Qd1 Qg2 37. Bd2 Qf2 38. Bc3 c4+ 39. Ka3 Qc5+ 40. Kb2
Qxb5+ 41. Kc1 Na4 42. Qd2 Na6 43. f4 Nxc3 44. Qxc3 Nb4 45. Kd2 Nxa2 46. Qa3 c3+
47. Kc2 Nb4+ 48. Kxc3 Qc5+ 49. Kb3 a5 50. Qb2 exf4 51. e5 Qxd5+ 52. Ka4 dxe5
0-1

1. d4 Nf6 2. c4 e6 3. Nc3 Bb4 4. Bg5 A very rare move nowadays. c5 5. d5 h6 6. Bh4 d6 7. e3 Bxc3+ 8. bxc3 Qe7 9. Nf3 e5 10. Nd2 g5 11. Bg3

So far so good according to theory.

[Event "ICC"]
[Site "Internet Chess Club"]
[Date "2011.05.26"]
[Round "?"]
[White "sly20"]
[Black "NinjaKnight"]
[Result "0-1"]
[ECO "A45"]
[WhiteElo "1656"]
[BlackElo "1896"]
[PlyCount "48"]
[EventDate "2011.??.??"]
[TimeControl "1200+5"]

1. d4 Nf6 2. Bf4 e6 3. Nf3 b6 4. e3 Bb7 5. Bd3 Be7 6. h3 O-O 7. O-O d5 8. c4
Nbd7 9. cxd5 exd5 10. Nc3 c5 11. dxc5 Nxc5 12. Bc2 Nfe4 13. Nxe4 dxe4 14. Nd4
Bf6 {Diagram #} 15. b4 Bxd4 16. Qxd4 Qxd4 17. exd4 Ne6 18. Be3 Rfd8 19. Rfd1 f5
20. Bb3 Bd5 21. Bxd5 Rxd5 22. Rac1 f4 23. Rc6 Nd8 24. Bxf4 Nxc6 0-1

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Thursday, May 26, 2011

  As you got older, and felt yourself to be at the center of your time, and not at a point in its circumference, as you had felt when you were little, you were seized with a sort of shuddering, he perceived. All around you there seemed to be something glaring, garish, rattling, and the noises and glares hit upon the little cell of your life, and shook it, and warped it. (Jude the Obscure page 17)

 

 

 

Taiwan meets Russia in LA and says yes

Coffee Mania chic

School boys and teacher at the Pushkin Fine Arts Museum

Ice chess set at the University near the Moscow Open

First sight of Moscow as I came up out of Kropotkinskaya Metro

January 28

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Incoming from Yerevan

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